Projected rise in the fixed broadband service revenues will offset the decline in fixed voice revenues and support the overall fixed communications market in Australia, which is set to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4 percent from US$9.1bn in 2021 to US$9.7bn by 2026, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
An analysis of GlobalData’s Australia Fixed Communication Forecast Model (Q4-2021) indicates that the fixed voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2.8 percent over 2021-2026 due to falling circuit-switched subscriptions and drop in overall fixed voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Aasif Iqbal, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “Subscribers’ inclination towards mobile and OTT-based communication services will also drag down fixed voice revenues over the coming years.”
Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.4 percent over the forecast period, mainly driven by the growth in fibre-to-the-home/business (FTTH/B) subscriptions, on the back of ongoing coverage expansions by the local government.
Iqbal continues: “Fibre lines accounted for a majority 70.9 percent share of the total fixed broadband lines in 2021, which will increase to about 77.6 percent by 2026. This growth will be supported by the rising demand for high-speed Internet services in the country and the government’s focus on aggressive fiber network expansion nationwide under the National Broadband Network (NBN) project.”
For instance, in May 2021 as a part of the NBN project, the government had announced a list of suburbs and towns where an additional 900,000 households and businesses will benefit from the deployment of fibre network, capable of offering 1Gbps download speed by 2023.
Iqbal concludes: “Telstra will lead the fixed voice services market through 2026 in terms of subscription, supported by its strong foothold in both circuit switched and VoIP segment. The operator will also lead the fixed broadband market supported by its focus on fibre network coverage expansion and promotion of more cost-effective multi-play plans. Telstra plans to expand its fiber optic network to an additional 20,000 kilometres, with deployment set to begin in late 2022 and testing already underway.”