Indonesia’s mobile service revenue is poised to grow at a mere 0.3 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $10.4 billion in 2022 to $10.6 billion in 2027, with continued decline in mobile voice revenues outweighing steady progress in the mobile data service segment, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s Indonesia Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1-2023) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 5.2 percent CAGR over the forecast period due to the widespread consumer shift towards over-the-top (OTT) based communication platforms and the subsequent decline in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 2.1 percent between 2022 and 2027, driven by the growing consumption of mobile data services, continued rise in smartphone subscriptions and projected rise in higher-ARPU yielding-5G subscriptions.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from 9.8GB in 2022 to 25.3GB in 2027, driven by the increasing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of the growing availability and adoption of 4G/5G services and the data-centric packages offered by MNOs.
4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2027, driven by the operators’ LTE network expansions in underserved areas as a part of the government’s plan to provide 4G network access to all remote villages and sub-districts in the country by 2023.
5G subscriptions, on the other hand, are estimated to increase at the fastest rate over the forecast period and are expected to garner about 12 percent share of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2027, driven by the ongoing 5G network expansions by operators.
Mahananda concludes: “Telkomsel will continue to lead the mobile services market in terms of subscription through 2027 given its strong focus on 4G network developments and expansion across the country. Moreover, the operator continues to add new customers through omnichannel and social media strategies.”