Growing adoption of 5G services, and steady growth in fibre broadband subscriptions are set to drive the total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in China at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% from USD$468.8 billion in 2023 to $502.9 billion in 2028, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s China Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the mobile voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period due to the bundling of free voice minutes with mobile service plans, increasing use of OTT-based communication apps for voice calling, and the subsequent decline in mobile voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will continue to increase driven by continued rise in mobile internet subscriptions, and more importantly growing adoption of higher ARPU yielding 5G services over the forecast period.
Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “5G services will go on to account for more than 87% of the total mobile subscriptions in the country by 2028. This growth will be mainly driven by the MIIT’s support for 5G infrastructure development and operators’ 5G network expansion and modernisation initiatives. For instance, in March 2024, China Mobile announced plans to expand 5G-A to over 300 cities in 2024, with the goal of establishing the world’s largest 5G commercial network.”
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice revenue will continue to decline as customers switch to mobile and internet-based voice communication services. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a CAGR of 1.5% during the review period, supported by the continued subscription gains in fibre broadband services.
Zeeshan adds: “Growing demand for high-speed broadband connectivity and the focus of the government and operators on fibre-optic network expansion in the country will support the fibre broadband subscriptions’ growth over the forecast period. China intends to extend optical fibre network coverage with 1Gbps speed to all townships and counties across the country by 2025.”
Pay-TV service segment will see a steady growth in revenue and subscriptions over the forecast period, driven by the growth in IPTV subscriptions and marginal increase in total Pay-TV ARPU.
Zeeshan concludes: “China Mobile topped the mobile and fixed broadband service segments, by subscriptions in 2023. Its ongoing 5G network investments will help in maintaining its leadership in the mobile services segment. Its leadership in the fixed broadband segment is primarily due to strong presence in the fibre broadband segment and focus on upgrading to gigabit broadband network for improving broadband access to homes and businesses across the country.”